Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142022 220920 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 112.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.80 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.0 22.3 19.7 18.3 15.0 14.6 13.8 16.3 N N N F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.0 99.4 104.8 108.5 116.5 104.8 96.0 89.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 26.0 20.0 36.0 -3.0 5.0 28.0 19.0 U U U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 58.0 56.0 52.0 49.0 46.0 39.0 N N U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 2.0 8.0 5.0 8.0 N N N N N U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 1.2% 0.8% 1.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.74 EP142022 220920 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 112.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.