Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152022 220922 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 107.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 41.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.9 15.4 15.8 16.4 15.9 14.8 18.7 18.7 F F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 88.5 84.8 83.0 81.2 79.4 90.5 100.7 100.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -13.0 5.0 10.0 -2.0 5.0 -5.0 -2.0 -2.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 60.0 60.0 61.0 60.0 59.0 53.0 53.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 6.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.2% 4.9% 8.1% 25kt / 24h 10.3% 10.9% 10.6% 30kt / 24h 10.3% 5.0% 7.7% 35kt / 24h 10.3% 5.0% 7.7% 40kt / 24h 10.3% 5.0% 7.7% 45kt / 36h 4.2% 14.2% 9.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.6% 2.8% 55kt / 48h 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 70kt / 48h 3.8% 2.9% 3.4% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 3.4% 1.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.10 EP152022 220922 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 107.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.