Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152022 220923 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 110.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.30 F TC SIZE [%] 32.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.8 13.4 15.1 18.4 23.3 28.2 27.5 23.5 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 30.0 9.0 3.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.2 86.2 93.5 99.4 110.1 112.3 105.7 99.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -1.0 8.0 -16.0 -11.0 -26.0 -7.0 1.0 -27.0 U U U U VU U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 58.0 59.0 57.0 55.0 50.0 48.0 44.0 N U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 9.0 6.0 N N N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.3% 1.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.04 EP152022 220923 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 110.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.