Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152022 220925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    115.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  25.9  27.9  26.0  18.0  20.1  17.1  17.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  14.0  10.0   9.0  21.0  17.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 132.0 132.0 129.6 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0   0.0  -2.0 -13.0 -41.0 -29.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   5.0   4.0   7.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.1%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.4%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        4.7%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.24

 EP152022 220925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    115.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  25.9  27.9  26.0  18.0  20.1  17.1  17.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  45.0  45.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   5.0   4.0   7.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%