Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152022 220928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     42.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  13.6  13.5  11.3  11.5  14.4  14.4  18.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0  10.0   9.0   9.0   5.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 132.3 119.4 113.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0 -26.0 -48.0 -50.0 -62.0  10.0   0.0   3.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  45.0  46.0  48.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  53.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%       14.9%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        5.8%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        5.5%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        5.5%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       24.0%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.8%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%       12.5%        8.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        7.5%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h        7.2%       14.0%       10.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 EP152022 220928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     42.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  13.6  13.5  11.3  11.5  14.4  14.4  18.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  45.0  46.0  48.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  53.0 VF VF VF  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%