Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152022 220929 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.90 125.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.70 F TC SIZE [%] 48.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.0 11.6 13.8 14.0 12.0 12.3 14.5 17.1 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 132.9 122.4 118.5 116.6 F F F F F N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -48.0 -63.0 -47.0 -19.0 -6.0 -26.0 -5.0 -21.0 VU VU VU U U VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 49.0 49.0 50.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 46.0 VU U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 7.8% 4.1% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 2.9% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 2.5% 1.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.5% 1.2% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 13.9% 7.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.3% 2.2% 55kt / 48h 2.9% 6.1% 4.5% 70kt / 48h 1.4% 4.0% 2.7% 65kt / 72h 5.1% 9.3% 7.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.94 EP152022 220929 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.90 125.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 48.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.0 11.6 13.8 14.0 12.0 12.3 14.5 17.1 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 49.0 49.0 50.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 46.0 VF F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%