Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162022 220930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    106.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  18.3  17.1  17.8  16.0  21.4  34.0  37.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  14.0  12.0  20.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.1 102.9 100.7 100.7 102.9 107.3 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  79.0  94.0 101.0  85.0 122.0  62.0  10.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  66.0  59.0  56.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.3%        8.8%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       21.6%       36.0%       28.8%
 30kt / 24h       14.0%       23.0%       18.5%
 35kt / 24h       14.0%       23.0%       18.5%
 40kt / 24h       14.0%       23.0%       18.5%
 45kt / 36h       18.3%       36.8%       27.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.7%        9.4%
 55kt / 48h       16.6%       16.9%       16.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.9%       12.1%       11.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.1%       11.1%       10.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 EP162022 220930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    106.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  18.3  17.1  17.8  16.0  21.4  34.0  37.3  U  N  N  N  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  66.0  59.0  56.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%