Rapid Intensification Guidance EP162022 220930 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 107.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.1 12.9 12.9 12.7 18.0 29.2 30.2 44.2 F F F F F N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 13.0 18.0 25.0 32.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 102.9 102.9 102.9 102.9 107.3 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 49.0 67.0 72.0 78.0 103.0 65.0 49.0 9.0 N N N N F N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 68.0 66.0 67.0 64.0 57.0 59.0 60.0 N N N N N U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.1% 5.4% 5.3% 25kt / 24h 14.1% 29.5% 21.8% 30kt / 24h 9.2% 18.1% 13.7% 35kt / 24h 8.8% 18.1% 13.5% 40kt / 24h 8.8% 18.1% 13.5% 45kt / 36h 14.9% 28.9% 21.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 13.1% 6.6% 55kt / 48h 13.4% 14.5% 13.9% 70kt / 48h 6.3% 7.6% 6.9% 65kt / 72h 5.9% 6.6% 6.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.92 EP162022 220930 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 107.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.1 12.9 12.9 12.7 18.0 29.2 30.2 44.2 U U U U N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 68.0 66.0 67.0 64.0 57.0 59.0 60.0 N N N N N F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%