Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162022 220930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  12.6  12.5  14.4  20.9  37.1  38.9  53.3  F  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  24.0  34.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.9  97.9  97.9 100.1 107.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  65.0  86.0  79.0 103.0  71.0  50.0  39.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  59.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.6%        6.6%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h       19.1%       32.7%       25.9%
 30kt / 24h       13.6%       22.1%       17.9%
 35kt / 24h       13.6%       22.1%       17.9%
 40kt / 24h       13.6%       22.1%       17.9%
 45kt / 36h       17.6%       26.0%       21.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.4%        5.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%       10.9%        9.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%        4.4%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        2.9%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 EP162022 220930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  12.6  12.5  14.4  20.9  37.1  38.9  53.3  U  U  U  U  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  59.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%