Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162022 221001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  11.9  19.3  24.5  34.3  38.5  54.5  59.4  F  F  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  14.0  18.0  27.0  34.0  17.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.3  89.6  94.3  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  62.0  46.0  45.0  63.0  16.0  25.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.6%       40.6%       50.1%
 25kt / 24h       56.5%       68.4%       62.5%
 30kt / 24h       52.9%       68.0%       60.4%
 35kt / 24h       52.9%       68.0%       60.4%
 40kt / 24h       52.9%       67.3%       60.1%
 45kt / 36h       34.0%       39.6%       36.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.0%       11.0%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%       14.6%       10.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        4.7%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 EP162022 221001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  11.9  19.3  24.5  34.3  38.5  54.5  59.4  U  U  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%