Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162022 221002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    106.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  22.4  25.5  31.4  40.3  50.9  57.6  57.6  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  19.0  23.0  28.0  33.0  21.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  25.0  57.0  48.0  12.0  30.0   6.0   6.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.7%       18.3%       35.0%
 25kt / 24h       25.4%       24.0%       24.7%
 30kt / 24h       25.4%       18.6%       22.0%
 35kt / 24h       25.4%       18.6%       22.0%
 40kt / 24h       25.4%       17.9%       21.6%
 45kt / 36h       44.4%        9.8%       27.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 EP162022 221002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    106.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  22.4  25.5  31.4  40.3  50.9  57.6  57.6  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%