Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172022 221003 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  15.5  14.8  19.1  23.6  29.4  36.2  42.2  N  F  F  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   8.0   8.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 127.0 124.6 122.3 120.1 122.3 124.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   3.0  -1.0   2.0 -23.0   4.0  27.0  11.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  45.0  44.0  41.0  37.0  33.0  31.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        4.7%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%       25.4%       15.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%       12.0%        8.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       12.0%        8.7%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%       12.0%        8.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%       27.6%       16.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.7%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        7.1%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        4.6%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        4.1%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 EP172022 221003 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  15.5  14.8  19.1  23.6  29.4  36.2  42.2  N  U  U  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  45.0  44.0  41.0  37.0  33.0  31.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%