Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172022 221004 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 112.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 28.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.60 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.3 16.2 21.9 20.9 29.3 35.9 44.5 43.7 F F N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 127.0 124.6 120.1 115.7 115.7 115.7 117.9 F N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 -19.0 5.0 7.0 5.0 12.0 -8.0 -29.0 U U U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 44.0 45.0 38.0 35.0 32.0 28.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.7% 5.6% 4.6% 25kt / 24h 5.1% 23.1% 14.1% 30kt / 24h 4.0% 10.7% 7.4% 35kt / 24h 3.0% 10.7% 6.8% 40kt / 24h 3.0% 10.7% 6.8% 45kt / 36h 2.8% 22.0% 12.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 8.1% 4.1% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 3.7% 2.1% 70kt / 48h 0.5% 2.7% 1.6% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.32 EP172022 221004 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 112.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.3 16.2 21.9 20.9 29.3 35.9 44.5 43.7 U U N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 44.0 45.0 38.0 35.0 32.0 28.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%