Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172022 221004 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    112.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  23.4  23.8  27.1  36.1  42.6  47.6  44.0  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   4.0  10.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 124.6 122.3 120.1 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -10.0  10.0   3.0   9.0   0.0 -21.0 -42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  46.0  42.0  38.0  36.0  31.0  27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.9%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        9.3%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.8%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        6.6%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 EP172022 221004 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    112.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  23.4  23.8  27.1  36.1  42.6  47.6  44.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  46.0  42.0  38.0  36.0  31.0  27.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%