Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172022 221004 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  25.5  29.6  32.6  35.3  45.6  44.7  48.7  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   8.0  16.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 120.1 117.9 115.7 115.7 113.6 115.7 113.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0   4.0  15.0  20.0  15.0 -22.0 -29.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  42.0  41.0  40.0  38.0  33.0  30.0  27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.2%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP172022 221004 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  25.5  29.6  32.6  35.3  45.6  44.7  48.7  N  N  N  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  42.0  41.0  40.0  38.0  33.0  30.0  27.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%