Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172022 221004 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 113.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 51.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.6 27.9 31.7 34.5 40.2 46.5 43.1 45.9 N N U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 6.0 16.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 117.3 115.1 115.1 112.9 112.9 110.7 110.7 108.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 14.0 23.0 -3.0 -17.0 -34.0 -36.0 -6.0 U U U U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 42.0 43.0 42.0 40.0 34.0 29.0 23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 7.0 11.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 1.6% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 0.8% 6.1% 3.4% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 2.3% 1.5% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 2.1% 1.5% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 2.1% 1.5% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.9% 2.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.04 EP172022 221004 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 113.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 51.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.6 27.9 31.7 34.5 40.2 46.5 43.1 45.9 N N N F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 42.0 43.0 42.0 40.0 34.0 29.0 23.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 7.0 11.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%