Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172022 221005 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 113.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.9 31.8 34.7 35.8 45.2 45.8 44.4 44.4 N U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 11.0 8.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 117.3 117.3 115.1 112.9 112.9 112.9 110.7 110.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 25.0 20.0 -24.0 -28.0 -35.0 -9.0 -9.0 U U U VU VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 42.0 41.0 40.0 37.0 33.0 29.0 29.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 2.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 3.0 6.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.3% 1.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.06 EP172022 221005 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 113.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.9 31.8 34.7 35.8 45.2 45.8 44.4 44.4 N N F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 42.0 41.0 40.0 37.0 33.0 29.0 29.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 2.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 3.0 6.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.1% 0.3%