Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172022 221005 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.8 36.4 37.5 42.6 48.7 43.9 47.2 47.2 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 6.0 13.0 5.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 122.3 120.1 120.1 117.9 117.9 117.9 111.5 111.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 8.0 5.0 -13.0 8.0 -21.0 -42.0 12.0 12.0 U U U U VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 41.0 41.0 40.0 36.0 32.0 26.0 26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 10.0 10.0 N N N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.02 EP172022 221005 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.8 36.4 37.5 42.6 48.7 43.9 47.2 47.2 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 41.0 41.0 40.0 36.0 32.0 26.0 26.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 10.0 10.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 3.2% 0.2% 1.7%