Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172022 221005 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 114.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.70 F TC SIZE [%] 48.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.0 35.1 39.8 43.7 44.3 42.9 46.1 46.1 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 9.0 9.0 5.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 127.3 127.3 125.1 125.1 122.9 120.7 116.5 116.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 -28.0 5.0 -24.0 -33.0 -37.0 -37.0 -37.0 U VU U VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 43.0 41.0 40.0 34.0 29.0 25.0 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.06 EP172022 221005 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 114.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 48.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.0 35.1 39.8 43.7 44.3 42.9 46.1 46.1 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 43.0 41.0 40.0 34.0 29.0 25.0 25.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 3.3% 0.2% 1.8%