Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182022 221009 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30     86.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  24.2  25.8  25.3  21.9  21.9  21.9  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  18.0  19.0  22.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   212.0 197.0 158.0 165.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0 VF VF VF VF  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  84.0  85.0  88.0  88.0  88.0  88.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.5%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        2.2%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        5.3%        1.6%        3.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 EP182022 221009 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30     86.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  24.2  25.8  25.3  21.9  21.9  21.9  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  84.0  85.0  88.0  88.0  88.0  88.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%