Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182022 221010 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 88.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 66.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 48.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.8 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 191.0 181.0 181.0 181.0 181.0 181.0 181.0 181.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 10.4% 19.6% 15.0% 30kt / 24h 1.2% 8.0% 4.6% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 7.4% 4.0% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 7.2% 3.9% 45kt / 36h 7.0% 17.5% 12.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.9% 2.4% 55kt / 48h 24.2% 21.3% 22.7% 70kt / 48h 6.0% 7.1% 6.6% 65kt / 72h 53.7% 28.7% 41.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.04 EP182022 221010 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 88.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.8 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%