Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182022 221010 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.60 89.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 33.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 18.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 152.0 136.0 136.0 136.0 136.0 136.0 136.0 136.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 N VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.4% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 9.5% 21.1% 15.3% 30kt / 24h 1.7% 9.1% 5.4% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 8.5% 4.6% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 8.4% 4.5% 45kt / 36h 5.4% 19.2% 12.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.9% 2.9% 55kt / 48h 12.9% 16.7% 14.8% 70kt / 48h 2.1% 4.3% 3.2% 65kt / 72h 21.2% 12.5% 16.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.82 EP182022 221010 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.60 89.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 88.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 N VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%