Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182022 221010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50     91.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  16.6  16.6  16.6  16.6  16.6  16.6  16.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   143.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  76.0 VF  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   88.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  87.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        8.2%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       10.1%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%       11.2%       10.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        3.4%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       16.4%       16.3%       16.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 EP182022 221010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50     91.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  16.6  16.6  16.6  16.6  16.6  16.6  16.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   88.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  87.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%