Rapid Intensification Guidance EP192022 221020 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.10 101.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.2 14.1 16.8 19.7 9.9 10.6 8.1 18.7 F F F N F F VF N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 36.0 36.0 34.0 32.0 30.0 27.0 19.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 79.0 120.0 97.0 113.0 57.0 82.0 24.0 39.0 N F F F N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 75.0 72.0 71.0 69.0 67.0 64.0 61.0 F F N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 N N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.4% 6.4% 4.4% 25kt / 24h 22.2% 47.3% 34.7% 30kt / 24h 9.7% 27.7% 18.7% 35kt / 24h 3.9% 27.6% 15.7% 40kt / 24h 2.4% 27.6% 15.0% 45kt / 36h 21.5% 60.7% 41.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 39.4% 19.7% 55kt / 48h 41.4% 51.9% 46.7% 70kt / 48h 23.6% 44.8% 34.2% 65kt / 72h 47.8% 66.7% 57.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 EP192022 221020 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.10 101.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.2 14.1 16.8 19.7 9.9 10.6 8.1 18.7 U U N N U U VU N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 75.0 72.0 71.0 69.0 67.0 64.0 61.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 N N N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%