Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192022 221020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    101.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  16.6  14.0  10.9  10.2  10.4  19.8  15.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  35.0  36.0  35.0  34.0  29.0  18.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  57.0  63.0  38.0  71.0  32.0  37.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  64.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        7.9%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h       24.3%       54.2%       39.2%
 30kt / 24h       12.6%       37.9%       25.2%
 35kt / 24h        7.1%       37.9%       22.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%       37.5%       20.5%
 45kt / 36h       26.0%       67.5%       46.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       50.0%       25.0%
 55kt / 48h       40.4%       55.5%       47.9%
 70kt / 48h       20.4%       45.7%       33.1%
 65kt / 72h       36.7%       56.5%       46.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 EP192022 221020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    101.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  16.6  14.0  10.9  10.2  10.4  19.8  15.5  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  64.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%