Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192022 221020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    102.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  10.1   8.4   9.9  14.1  13.3  19.8  15.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  35.0  35.0  34.0  29.0  21.0  18.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  46.0  21.0  11.0  45.0  52.0  24.0  52.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  55.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        7.1%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h       19.3%       50.4%       34.9%
 30kt / 24h       11.7%       33.2%       22.5%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%       33.2%       19.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%       33.2%       18.4%
 45kt / 36h       21.9%       58.9%       40.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       38.0%       19.0%
 55kt / 48h       34.2%       45.6%       39.9%
 70kt / 48h       17.2%       34.6%       25.9%
 65kt / 72h       33.6%       47.7%       40.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 EP192022 221020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    102.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  10.1   8.4   9.9  14.1  13.3  19.8  15.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  55.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%