Rapid Intensification Guidance EP192022 221024 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 102.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -75.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 57.8 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 F N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 40.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 55.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.32 EP192022 221024 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 102.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -75.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 57.8 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 55.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 99.7% 49.4% 74.6%