Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012022 220304 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10     83.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  31.0  33.3  32.1  27.5  20.4  21.4  21.4  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  58.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  66.0  73.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 113.6 115.7 115.7 107.4 109.4 129.3 129.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  78.0  70.0  50.0  32.0  12.0 -21.0 -21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  47.0  49.0  51.0  48.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        2.1%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       14.5%       10.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        6.0%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        5.3%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.8%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       19.8%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.3%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        9.0%        9.0%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        9.0%        5.4%        7.2%
 65kt / 72h       20.1%       13.5%       16.8%