Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012022 220305 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     83.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.0  38.5  40.2  34.3  22.3  21.0  23.6  30.2  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  56.0   0.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        113.6 113.6 115.7 113.6 105.5  94.4  81.5  96.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  38.0  23.0 -17.0  -3.0  15.0  21.0  30.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  43.0  42.0  38.0  39.0  43.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   7.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        0.5%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        0.4%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h       11.6%        1.2%        6.4%