Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012022 220306 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90     81.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  29.7  30.2  29.7  29.4  36.2  36.2  36.2  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  53.0  60.0  63.0  73.0  74.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.4 102.7  97.7  96.1 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  19.0   7.0   4.0  21.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  35.0  33.0  32.0  38.0  42.0  42.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        0.3%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        0.2%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        7.9%        1.0%        4.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons