Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012022 220306 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60     80.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  31.8  30.0  29.9  32.3  42.6  42.6  42.6  U  U  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  56.0  60.0  64.0  70.0  71.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        139.3 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -8.0   0.0  32.0  40.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   33.0  33.0  36.0  38.0  39.0  45.0  45.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   4.0   3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        1.2%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        0.5%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%        1.5%        3.5%