Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022022 220509 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00     86.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.9  50.2  51.9  57.5  49.4  33.3  34.6  34.9 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  89.0  91.0  96.0  98.0 103.0 102.0  90.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0 -10.0 -26.0 -21.0   7.0  35.0  54.0  77.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  64.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  -4.0   0.0  -7.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        0.6%        1.3%