Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022022 220509 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40     85.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.6  47.7  52.0  52.4  40.1  37.2  38.4  39.1 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0  93.0  96.0  96.0 101.0  97.0  98.0 102.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  -3.0  -5.0  10.0  56.0  53.0  81.0 109.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  75.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -9.0 -17.0  -6.0 -14.0  -6.0 -18.0  N  N  F VF  F VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        1.0%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        3.5%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        1.3%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        1.1%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        1.2%        2.5%