Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022022 220510 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     83.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.4  35.4  27.4  35.7  40.0  38.7  36.7  34.0 VU  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0 102.0  96.0  91.0  77.0  63.0  55.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  10.0  32.0  25.0 -23.0  12.0  -1.0  -1.0  U  U  N  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  66.0  70.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  12.0   9.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.9%        9.8%       15.9%
 25kt / 24h       33.7%       37.9%       35.8%
 30kt / 24h       31.5%       27.6%       29.5%
 35kt / 24h       31.5%       27.6%       29.5%
 40kt / 24h        5.6%       24.9%       15.2%
 45kt / 36h       11.9%       14.9%       13.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.9%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        5.3%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%