Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022022 220510 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     81.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  31.5  33.3  36.9  38.9  42.1  47.6  44.9  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  72.0  72.0  66.0  66.0  72.0  78.0  91.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0   3.0  16.0  -9.0  -6.0  55.0   5.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  67.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -9.0  -4.0   5.0   1.0  30.0  -5.0  N  F  F  F  N  N VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.9%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.2%       12.6%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%        7.1%        5.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%        6.9%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        6.1%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        3.9%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        2.2%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        0.8%        0.9%