Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022022 220511 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     81.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  33.4  33.8  36.1  29.3  28.7  37.4  31.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  66.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  87.0  93.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        124.3 119.6 119.6 119.6 122.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -33.0 -13.0 -22.0 -23.0  10.0  11.0   0.0 -14.0 VU  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -7.0  -2.0  -4.0   4.0  -1.0  N  F  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        1.9%        2.3%