Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022022 220512 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     80.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.5  33.4  34.1  31.8  27.9  34.2  26.1  38.2  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  66.0  66.0  73.0  84.0  80.0  93.0  99.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0   9.0  -8.0   8.0  -9.0   0.0  -3.0  91.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  74.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   8.0   8.0  10.0   2.0   6.0  -4.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h       11.2%        4.7%        8.0%