Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042022 220819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     89.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  32.2  35.1  29.3  32.9  30.0  37.0  34.3  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  61.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  49.0  63.0  84.0  47.0  28.0   6.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  81.0  83.0  81.0  84.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   6.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        2.8%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%       17.9%       13.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%        6.7%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%        6.5%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        6.5%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%       16.4%       11.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        5.8%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        2.8%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        4.9%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.20

 IO042022 220819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     89.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  32.2  35.1  29.3  32.9  30.0  37.0  34.3  N  N  F  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  81.0  83.0  81.0  84.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   6.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%