Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042022 220819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     87.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  23.2  21.7  24.4  18.7  29.2  28.4  24.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 127.0 117.9 120.1 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  50.0  57.0  45.0  16.0  29.0   3.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  78.0  79.0  81.0  80.0  76.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   9.0   1.0  -5.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.9%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        6.3%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        4.4%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        4.4%        2.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.24

 IO042022 220819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     87.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  23.2  21.7  24.4  18.7  29.2  28.4  24.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  78.0  79.0  81.0  80.0  76.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   9.0   1.0  -5.0  N  U  N  N  N  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%