Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042022 220820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70     85.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    154.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  21.9  22.8  19.4  23.0  28.8  28.9  21.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 125.1 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  47.0  43.0  23.0  24.0  11.0 -42.0  11.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  79.0  81.0  77.0  80.0  76.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   7.0   8.0   0.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        8.1%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        3.5%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       10.3%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        5.7%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.0%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        5.8%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 IO042022 220820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70     85.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    154.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  21.9  22.8  19.4  23.0  28.8  28.9  21.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  79.0  81.0  77.0  80.0  76.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   7.0   8.0   0.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%