Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042022 220820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90     84.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  24.0  19.9  18.9  28.1  29.1  26.9  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.2  85.8  87.2  91.5  87.2  84.4  83.0  84.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  38.0  20.0  26.0  23.0   9.0  -6.0  15.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  85.0  84.0  78.0  77.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   5.0   8.0   6.0   4.0  -2.0 -15.0  F  N  N  U  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.34

 IO042022 220820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90     84.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.