Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052022 221023 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     88.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  20.6  23.4  27.0  35.8  33.6  41.8  50.7  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  62.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  92.7  53.7  43.4  32.8  F  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  91.0 103.0  87.0  83.0  48.0   1.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  65.0  61.0  54.0  46.0  44.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   5.0   4.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        3.5%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h       16.9%       30.5%       23.7%
 30kt / 24h        7.3%       14.3%       10.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%       13.5%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       13.5%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h        6.8%       22.5%       14.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.7%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.2%        7.2%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        7.2%        2.5%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        0.7%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.82

 IO052022 221023 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     88.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    156.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  20.6  23.4  27.0  35.8  33.6  41.8  50.7  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  65.0  61.0  54.0  46.0  44.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   5.0   4.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%