Rapid Intensification Guidance IO052022 221024 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 89.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 48.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 157.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.9 40.1 50.4 56.3 51.2 48.4 52.8 53.3 N U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 58.0 60.0 61.0 12.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 17.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 122.3 105.5 99.8 105.5 105.5 107.4 F F N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 114.0 59.0 69.0 13.0 22.0 -20.0 -8.0 -12.0 F N N U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.0 60.0 60.0 53.0 48.0 39.0 30.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -4.0 5.0 -17.0 -13.0 -8.0 -4.0 -6.0 F F N VF VF F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.8% 3.7% 2.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.5% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.90 IO052022 221024 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 89.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 157.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.9 40.1 50.4 56.3 51.2 48.4 52.8 53.3 N F VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.0 60.0 60.0 53.0 48.0 39.0 30.0 N N N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -4.0 5.0 -17.0 -13.0 -8.0 -4.0 -6.0 U U N VU VU U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%