Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052022 221024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     89.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    154.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.9  50.7  44.2  42.0  52.3  53.7  53.7  55.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  61.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0  78.0  61.7  59.3  58.2  59.3  59.3  59.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  78.0  27.0  10.0  18.0   0.0 -10.0  -8.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  50.0  48.0  40.0  33.0  29.0  27.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0 -12.0 -14.0  -8.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  F VF  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.0%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.98

 IO052022 221024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     89.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.