Rapid Intensification Guidance IO052022 221024 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 90.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 64.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 150.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 47.1 46.5 42.0 47.7 58.3 53.0 55.2 50.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 61.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 76.1 55.5 54.3 53.2 54.3 54.3 55.5 55.5 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 65.0 31.0 22.0 1.0 -7.0 -7.0 -19.0 -18.0 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 54.0 49.0 41.0 35.0 32.0 28.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -19.0 -16.0 -12.0 -7.0 -5.0 -6.0 -5.0 N VF VF F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.88 IO052022 221024 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 90.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.