Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO062022 221207 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.10     84.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     91.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  34.3  34.7  33.4  26.9  27.0  23.5  22.8  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  22.0  17.0  17.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 124.6 124.6 127.0 103.5  65.5  58.8 105.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   143.0 125.0 102.0 110.0  49.0  38.0  50.0  36.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.0%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h       11.3%       20.7%       16.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        8.7%        5.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        8.7%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        7.7%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       20.1%       11.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.8%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        0.3%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 IO062022 221207 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.10     84.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  34.3  34.7  33.4  26.9  27.0  23.5  22.8  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%