Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO062022 221208 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.70     83.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  34.1  31.4  28.1  31.4  29.8  26.7  25.2  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  50.0  40.0  37.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 117.0 117.0 119.3  57.9  20.7  12.7  13.1  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  32.0  27.0  24.0  39.0  39.0  21.0  46.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  69.0  70.0  65.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0   9.0  16.0   8.0   3.0   1.0  F  F  F  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        2.7%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        9.9%       20.6%       15.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%       10.3%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       10.3%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        9.2%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        9.7%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 IO062022 221208 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.70     83.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  34.1  31.4  28.1  31.4  29.8  26.7  25.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  69.0  70.0  65.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0   9.0  16.0   8.0   3.0   1.0  U  U  U  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%