Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO062022 221208 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00     82.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  26.3  23.6  25.5  31.8  24.4  29.6  24.1  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  40.0  37.0  32.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.3 114.3 107.3  69.6  19.6   7.3   7.0  65.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  13.0  34.0  22.0  37.0  68.0  39.0 -17.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  82.0  79.0  77.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0   5.0   2.0   8.0   5.0   0.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.8%        7.1%        8.4%
 25kt / 24h       13.4%       23.9%       18.6%
 30kt / 24h        8.6%       13.6%       11.1%
 35kt / 24h        8.6%       13.6%       11.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       12.6%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        8.0%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 IO062022 221208 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00     82.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  26.3  23.6  25.5  31.8  24.4  29.6  24.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  82.0  79.0  77.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0   5.0   2.0   8.0   5.0   0.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%