Rapid Intensification Guidance IO062022 221208 18UTC Storm Located at : 10.50 82.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 70.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.8 23.7 24.3 24.9 23.8 25.2 27.9 22.7 U N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 40.0 37.0 35.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.0 65.0 N U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 107.0 104.6 83.5 51.7 26.6 28.3 85.5 110.0 N N N U VU VU N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 33.0 30.0 68.0 55.0 38.0 1.0 2.0 U N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 70.0 75.0 71.0 74.0 70.0 58.0 63.0 N N F N N N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 2.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.8% 8.7% 10.3% 25kt / 24h 11.4% 18.7% 15.1% 30kt / 24h 8.3% 11.2% 9.7% 35kt / 24h 8.3% 11.2% 9.7% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 10.0% 5.6% 45kt / 36h 0.9% 9.0% 4.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.5% 1.8% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.42 IO062022 221208 18UTC Storm Located at : 10.50 82.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.