Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO062022 221209 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90     81.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  23.4  24.9  25.3  24.5  29.6  25.4  21.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  31.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  67.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        104.6  81.6  54.4  37.7  26.6  42.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  30.0  68.0  56.0  44.0  33.0  -1.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  74.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  72.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.1%        6.6%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        8.5%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        4.5%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        4.4%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.8%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.0%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.60

 IO062022 221209 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90     81.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.